President Vladimir Putin has set a “red line” for the United States and its allies, warning that Moscow may consider using nuclear weapons if Ukraine is allowed to strike deep into Russia with Western-supplied long-range missiles.
Some in the West question whether he is serious, as Ukraine and its supporters suspect Putin may be bluffing. If so, the West might increase military support for Kyiv despite Moscow’s threats.
If Putin is not bluffing, the risk of the conflict escalating into World War Three, as both Moscow and Washington acknowledge, could increase.
Recently, Putin expanded the scenarios under which Russia might use nuclear weapons, including in response to a large-scale conventional attack involving aircraft, missiles, or drones. He also warned that any country supporting an attack on Russia would be considered a party to that aggression.
Putin’s remarks were timed as Ukraine seeks more long-range missiles from the West, and President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to discuss this with President Joe Biden. Kyiv dismissed Putin’s warnings as nuclear blackmail, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling them irresponsible.
Experts like Fabian Hoffmann caution against overreacting, noting that while Russian nuclear use isn’t imminent, the West should monitor for signs of preparations. Putin’s updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine signal serious consequences for any Western involvement in attacks on Russia.
The changes lower the threshold for nuclear use, extending Russia’s nuclear umbrella to include Belarus and expanding the justification for nuclear response beyond threats to state existence.
However, the shift stops short of more extreme proposals, such as those advocating a limited nuclear strike in Europe.
Putin’s message to the West is clear: any attempt to escalate the conflict into Russia could be met with a nuclear response. Analysts are divided on whether this is serious or just an attempt to intimidate, but the situation underscores the precarious nature of the current standoff.
